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Estrella de Berisso vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 10 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Estrella de Berisso

PPG 1.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Provincial

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrella de Berisso1.5

Provincial1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELLA DE BERISSO · PPG 1.00

PROVINCIAL · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrella de Berisso (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Provincial (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrella de Berisso face Provincial in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrella de Berisso a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Provincial 28%, so Estrella de Berisso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Estrella de Berisso and 1.1 for Provincial (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrella de Berisso are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Provincial. This match finished 5-0.

Estrella de Berisso vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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