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Barrancas UMET vs Uribelarrea Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:30

Barrancas UMET

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uribelarrea

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-112.5%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-112.0%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.8%2-15.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% — — —

Draw 32.9% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.4%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrancas UMET1.0

Uribelarrea0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRANCAS UMET · PPG 2.33

URIBELARREA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barrancas UMET (H) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Uribelarrea (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrancas UMET face Uribelarrea in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrancas UMET a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Uribelarrea 23%, so Barrancas UMET are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Barrancas UMET and 0.6 for Uribelarrea (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrancas UMET are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Uribelarrea.

Barrancas UMET vs Uribelarrea Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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