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Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:30

Defensores Glew

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrella de Berisso

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-17.7%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.7%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-18.4%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% — — —

Draw 16.9% — — —

Away win 15.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 63.1% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.7%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Glew2.4

Estrella de Berisso0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES GLEW · PPG 2.40

ESTRELLA DE BERISSO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Glew (H) 67.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Estrella de Berisso (A) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Glew face Estrella de Berisso in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Glew a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Estrella de Berisso 15%, so Defensores Glew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Defensores Glew and 0.8 for Estrella de Berisso (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Glew are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Estrella de Berisso.

Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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