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SAT Moreno vs Nautico Hacoaj Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 10 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

SAT Moreno

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Nautico Hacoaj

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.3%0-116.2%0-24.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-110.4%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.5%2-13.4%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.4%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 47.6% 2.10 -14.7%

Draw 35.6% 41.7% 2.40 -14.6%

Away win 23.9% 22.7% 4.40 +3.1%

Over 2.5 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

Over 3.5 17.7% 19.8% 5.05 -6.4%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 38.3% 2.61 -21.2%

Away O1.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 41% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.3%

#2 1–0✓ 20.2%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SAT Moreno0.6

Nautico Hacoaj0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAT MORENO · PPG 3.00

NAUTICO HACOAJ · PPG 2.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 1.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SAT Moreno (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.7%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -14.6%

Nautico Hacoaj (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SAT Moreno face Nautico Hacoaj in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SAT Moreno a 41% chance, the draw 36% and Nautico Hacoaj 24%, so SAT Moreno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for SAT Moreno and 0.5 for Nautico Hacoaj (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SAT Moreno are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Nautico Hacoaj. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-0.

SAT Moreno vs Nautico Hacoaj Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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