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Ezeiza vs Alumni Los Hornos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 18:00

Ezeiza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alumni Los Hornos

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-112.3%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.0%1-112.9%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.7%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 32.4% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 37.0% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.7%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ezeiza1.0

Alumni Los Hornos0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EZEIZA · PPG 1.00

ALUMNI LOS HORNOS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ezeiza (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alumni Los Hornos (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ezeiza face Alumni Los Hornos in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ezeiza a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Alumni Los Hornos 23%, so Ezeiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ezeiza and 0.7 for Alumni Los Hornos (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ezeiza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Alumni Los Hornos.

Ezeiza vs Alumni Los Hornos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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