Today / Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur / Alumni Los Hornos vs Barrancas UMET

Alumni Los Hornos vs Barrancas UMET Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Alumni Los Hornos

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Barrancas UMET

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-119.1%0-29.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-112.5%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.0%2-14.1%2-22.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% — — —

Draw 33.7% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alumni Los Hornos0.7

Barrancas UMET1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMNI LOS HORNOS · PPG 1.40

BARRANCAS UMET · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 1.68 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alumni Los Hornos (H) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barrancas UMET (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alumni Los Hornos face Barrancas UMET in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alumni Los Hornos a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Barrancas UMET 35%, so Barrancas UMET are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Alumni Los Hornos and 1.0 for Barrancas UMET (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alumni Los Hornos are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Barrancas UMET. This match finished 0-2.

Alumni Los Hornos vs Barrancas UMET Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions