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Sertãozinho U20 vs Mirassol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Sertãozinho U20

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mirassol U20

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-110.0%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 26.1% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sertãozinho U201.3

Mirassol U200.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SERTÃOZINHO U20 · PPG 1.29

MIRASSOL U20 · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sertãozinho U20 (H) 47.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mirassol U20 (A) 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sertãozinho U20 face Mirassol U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sertãozinho U20 a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Mirassol U20 26%, so Sertãozinho U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sertãozinho U20 and 0.9 for Mirassol U20 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sertãozinho U20 are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.87 for Mirassol U20.

Sertãozinho U20 vs Mirassol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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