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Botafogo SP U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Botafogo SP U20

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino U20

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-112.8%0-27.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.6%2-16.8%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.9%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 35.8% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

A 36% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP U201.0

Novorizontino U201.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP U20 · PPG 1.40

NOVORIZONTINO U20 · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.19, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP U20 (H) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Novorizontino U20 (A) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP U20 face Novorizontino U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP U20 a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Novorizontino U20 36%, so Botafogo SP U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Botafogo SP U20 and 1.2 for Novorizontino U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP U20 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Novorizontino U20.

Botafogo SP U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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