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Capivariano U20 vs Guarani U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Capivariano U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani U20

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Capivariano U201.5

Guarani U201.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPIVARIANO U20 · PPG 2.00

GUARANI U20 · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Capivariano U20 (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guarani U20 (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Capivariano U20 face Guarani U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Capivariano U20 a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Guarani U20 28%, so Capivariano U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Capivariano U20 and 1.1 for Guarani U20 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Capivariano U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Guarani U20.

Capivariano U20 vs Guarani U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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