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São Caetano U20 vs Aguai U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 13:00

São Caetano U20

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aguai U20

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.5%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.2%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.5%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-17.7%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 64.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Caetano U202.4

Aguai U201.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO CAETANO U20 · PPG 1.20

AGUAI U20 · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

São Caetano U20 (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aguai U20 (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

São Caetano U20 face Aguai U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Caetano U20 a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Aguai U20 22%, so São Caetano U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for São Caetano U20 and 1.1 for Aguai U20 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Caetano U20 are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Aguai U20.

São Caetano U20 vs Aguai U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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