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Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Central Ballester

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leandro N. Alem

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.6%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.3%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 37.0% 2.70 +31.5%

Draw 24.7% 35.7% 2.80 -18.5%

Away win 26.7% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 37.0% 2.70 +45.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 16.7% 6.00 +90.8%

BTTS 54.5% 47.6% 2.10 +14.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 32.3% 3.10 +52.5%

Away O1.5 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Ballester1.7

Leandro N. Alem1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL BALLESTER · PPG 0.90

LEANDRO N. ALEM · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Central Ballester (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +31.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.5%

Leandro N. Alem (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Ballester face Leandro N. Alem in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Ballester a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Leandro N. Alem 27%, so Central Ballester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Central Ballester and 1.2 for Leandro N. Alem (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Ballester are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 0.82 for Leandro N. Alem. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +106.0%.

Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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