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Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Lugano

PPG 1.90 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Victoriano Arenas

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-112.5%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-16.6%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 41.7% 2.40 +6.1%

Draw 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

Away win 23.5% 32.3% 3.10 -16.3%

Over 2.5 35.3% 30.8% 3.25 +14.7%

Over 3.5 18.1% 15.4% 6.50 +10.6%

BTTS 45.5% 40.8% 2.45 +11.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.3%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugano1.0

Victoriano Arenas0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGANO · PPG 1.90

VICTORIANO ARENAS · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 1.75 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lugano (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.2%

Victoriano Arenas (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugano face Victoriano Arenas in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugano a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Victoriano Arenas 24%, so Lugano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lugano and 0.7 for Victoriano Arenas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugano are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.18 for Victoriano Arenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Lugano vs Victoriano Arenas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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