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Juventud Unida vs Puerto Nuevo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Juventud Unida

PPG 1.18 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Puerto Nuevo

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-113.8%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.9%2-16.4%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 42.9% 2.33 +2.1%

Draw 31.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Away win 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Over 2.5 36.3% 35.1% 2.85 +3.5%

Over 3.5 21.4% 18.2% 5.50 +10.6%

BTTS 47.0% 44.4% 2.25 +5.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.9% 2.95 -5.3%

Away O1.5 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.0%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud Unida1.0

Puerto Nuevo0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD UNIDA · PPG 1.18

PUERTO NUEVO · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud Unida (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +2.1%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.1%

Puerto Nuevo (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud Unida face Puerto Nuevo in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud Unida a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Puerto Nuevo 25%, so Juventud Unida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Juventud Unida and 0.8 for Puerto Nuevo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud Unida are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.82 for Puerto Nuevo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Juventud Unida vs Puerto Nuevo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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