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Canuelas vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Canuelas

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-112.1%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.7%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.7%2-16.6%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.3%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 38.5% 2.60 +10.8%

Draw 31.9% 37.7% 2.65 -15.5%

Away win 25.5% 33.9% 2.95 -14.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 31.3% 3.20 +9.4%

Over 3.5 17.7% 13.3% 7.50 +19.7%

BTTS 44.6% 41.7% 2.40 +7.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 26.3% 3.80 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 18.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canuelas1.0

Estrella Del Sur0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CANUELAS · PPG 1.60

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Canuelas (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +10.8%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -15.5%

Estrella Del Sur (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canuelas face Estrella Del Sur in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canuelas a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Estrella Del Sur 26%, so Canuelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Canuelas and 0.7 for Estrella Del Sur (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canuelas are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.18 for Estrella Del Sur. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Canuelas vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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