Today / Argentina - Primera C / Sacachispas vs Deportivo Paraguayo

Sacachispas vs Deportivo Paraguayo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Sacachispas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Deportivo Paraguayo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-16.2%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-19.8%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-17.7%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.3%3-14.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 62.5% 1.60 -16.8%

Draw 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Away win 21.7% 16.0% 6.25 +21.4%

Over 2.5 40.1% 36.4% 2.75 +10.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 18.2% 5.50 +9.6%

BTTS 44.6% 38.5% 2.60 +16.0%

Home O1.5 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Away O1.5 16.7% 14.3% 7.00 +10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 2–0✓ 15.7%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacachispas1.6

Deportivo Paraguayo0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SACACHISPAS · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sacachispas (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -16.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Deportivo Paraguayo (A) 21.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacachispas face Deportivo Paraguayo in Argentina - Primera C on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacachispas a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Deportivo Paraguayo 22%, so Sacachispas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sacachispas and 0.5 for Deportivo Paraguayo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacachispas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Paraguayo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Sacachispas vs Deportivo Paraguayo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera C Predictions