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Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Barracas

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Claypole

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+33.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.4%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.0%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.7%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 40.0% 2.50 +33.3%

Draw 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Away win 22.2% 34.5% 2.90 -21.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 36.4% 2.75 +37.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 18.2% 5.50 +34.7%

BTTS 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Home O1.5 45.5% 33.3% 3.00 +36.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 29.4% 3.40 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0✓ 12.5%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Barracas1.6

Claypole0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO BARRACAS · PPG 1.67

CLAYPOLE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Barracas (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +33.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

Claypole (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Barracas face Claypole in Argentina - Primera C on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Barracas a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Claypole 22%, so Sportivo Barracas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sportivo Barracas and 0.7 for Claypole (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Barracas are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Claypole. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Sportivo Barracas vs Claypole Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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