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Atletico Atlas vs Canuelas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.18 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Canuelas

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-118.1%0-210.4%0-34.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.6%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-03.8%2-14.4%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 33.9% 2.95 -15.6%

Draw 28.7% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Away win 46.2% 41.7% 2.40 +10.9%

Over 2.5 36.3% 34.5% 2.90 +5.3%

Over 3.5 18.4% 18.2% 5.50 +0.7%

BTTS 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 27.8% 3.60 +15.6%

Away O1.5 35.4% 33.3% 3.00 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -64.3%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.5%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Atlas0.7

Canuelas1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.18

CANUELAS · PPG 1.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.45, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Atlas (H) 25.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.6%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Canuelas (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Atlas face Canuelas in Argentina - Primera C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Atlas a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Canuelas 46%, so Canuelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Atletico Atlas and 1.2 for Canuelas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Atlas are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.92 for Canuelas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Atletico Atlas vs Canuelas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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