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Agropecuario vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ciudad de Bolívar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-112.9%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-113.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.9%2-16.5%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 54.1% 1.85 -18.2%

Draw 32.4% 34.5% 2.90 -6.0%

Away win 23.4% 21.7% 4.60 +4.6%

Over 2.5 37.0% 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%

Over 3.5 18.3% 15.4% 6.50 +11.4%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 42.0% 2.38 -28.1%

Away O1.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario1.0

Ciudad de Bolívar0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.58

CIUDAD DE BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -18.2%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.0%

Ciudad de Bolívar (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face Ciudad de Bolívar in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Ciudad de Bolívar 23%, so Agropecuario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Agropecuario and 0.7 for Ciudad de Bolívar (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.67 for Ciudad de Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%.

Agropecuario vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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