Today / England - Championship / Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:30

Sheffield Utd

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.6%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.9%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 40.3% 2.48 +18.1%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 28.1% 36.2% 2.76 -13.5%

Over 2.5 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 45.7% 42.0% 2.38 +8.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield Utd1.6

Birmingham1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD UTD · PPG 1.40

BIRMINGHAM · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield Utd (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +18.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Birmingham (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield Utd face Birmingham in England - Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield Utd a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Birmingham 28%, so Sheffield Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sheffield Utd and 1.1 for Birmingham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.09 for Birmingham. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions