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Bristol City vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Bristol City

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stoke City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.9%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 51.0% 1.96 -23.4%

Draw 31.3% 26.7% 3.75 +17.4%

Away win 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.8%

Over 2.5 43.2% 61.7% 1.62 -30.0%

Over 3.5 22.3% 39.2% 2.55 -43.1%

BTTS 50.6% 65.4% 1.53 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.6%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bristol City1.3

Stoke City1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.27

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bristol City (H) 39.1%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -23.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +17.4%

Stoke City (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bristol City face Stoke City in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bristol City a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Stoke City 30%, so Bristol City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bristol City and 1.1 for Stoke City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bristol City are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Stoke City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Bristol City vs Stoke City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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