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Millwall vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Millwall

PPG 1.77 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Oxford Utd

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.9%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.1%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 73.0% 1.37 -37.5%

Draw 30.6% 21.7% 4.60 +40.8%

Away win 23.8% 12.1% 8.25 +96.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 60.6% 1.65 -29.5%

Over 3.5 21.9% 38.5% 2.60 -43.1%

BTTS 48.9% 52.6% 1.90 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0✓ 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millwall1.4

Oxford Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLWALL · PPG 1.77

OXFORD UTD · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Millwall (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -37.5%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +40.8%

Oxford Utd (A) 23.8%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +96.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face Oxford Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Oxford Utd 24%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Millwall and 1.0 for Oxford Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.82 for Oxford Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +96.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Millwall vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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