Millwall vs Oxford Utd Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 46 The Den· London Saturday, May 2, 2026 11:30

Millwall PPG 1.77

2-0 HIT CS4

Oxford Utd PPG 0.82

Away· +96.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face Oxford Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Oxford Utd 24%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Millwall and 1.0 for Oxford Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.82 for Oxford Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +96.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.6%

Odds: 1.37 EV: -37.5%

Draw 30.6%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +40.8%

Away 23.8%

Odds: 8.25 EV: +96.4%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.7% Odds: 1.65 -29.5%

Over 3.5 21.9% Odds: 2.60 -43.1%

BTTS 48.9% Odds: 1.90 -7.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✔

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Millwall

1.42

Oxford Utd

0.97

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=45.6%