Derby County vs Sheffield Utd Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 46 Pride Park· Derby Saturday, May 2, 2026 11:30

Derby County PPG 1.64

1-2 MISS

Sheffield Utd PPG 1.18

Away· +12.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby County face Sheffield Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby County a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Sheffield Utd 28%, so Derby County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Derby County and 1.2 for Sheffield Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby County are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.18 for Sheffield Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.7%

Odds: 1.81 EV: -22.7%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +9.4%

Away 28.4%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +12.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.5% Odds: 1.67 -14.0%

Over 3.5 29.4% Odds: 2.70 -20.6%

BTTS 56.7% Odds: 1.62 -8.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Derby County

1.52

Sheffield Utd

1.21

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)