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Derby County vs Sheffield Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Derby County

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sheffield Utd

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.8%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.0%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 55.2% 1.81 -22.7%

Draw 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +9.4%

Away win 28.4% 25.3% 3.95 +12.2%

Over 2.5 51.5% 59.9% 1.67 -14.0%

Over 3.5 29.4% 37.0% 2.70 -20.6%

BTTS 56.7% 61.7% 1.62 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.7%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derby County1.5

Sheffield Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DERBY COUNTY · PPG 1.64

SHEFFIELD UTD · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Derby County (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -22.7%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +9.4%

Sheffield Utd (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby County face Sheffield Utd in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby County a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Sheffield Utd 28%, so Derby County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Derby County and 1.2 for Sheffield Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby County are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.18 for Sheffield Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Derby County vs Sheffield Utd Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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