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Hull City vs Norwich City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Hull City

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Norwich City

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.5%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.0%1-28.3%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 52.6% 1.90 -31.4%

Draw 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +10.2%

Away win 34.9% 28.2% 3.55 +23.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 30.4% 40.8% 2.45 -25.5%

BTTS 58.2% 65.4% 1.53 -10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.2%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hull City1.4

Norwich City1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HULL CITY · PPG 1.59

NORWICH CITY · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Hull City (H) 36.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.4%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +10.2%

Norwich City (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hull City face Norwich City in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hull City a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Norwich City 35%, so Hull City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hull City and 1.4 for Norwich City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hull City are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.59 for Norwich City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Hull City vs Norwich City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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