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Charlton vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Charlton

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Derby

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.1%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.5%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 37.6% 2.66 +4.5%

Draw 26.8% 31.7% 3.15 -9.3%

Away win 33.8% 37.6% 2.66 -10.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

BTTS 54.1% 54.6% 1.83 -1.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 37.7% 2.65 +0.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.1%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlton1.3

Derby1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLTON · PPG 1.40

DERBY · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Charlton (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +4.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.3%

Derby (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlton face Derby in England - Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlton a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Derby 34%, so Charlton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Charlton and 1.2 for Derby (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlton are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.45 for Derby. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Charlton vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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