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Stoke City vs Swansea Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Stoke City

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Swansea

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.0%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 41.7% 2.40 +7.8%

Draw 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -7.5%

Away win 28.2% 34.7% 2.88 -11.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.3%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 44.9% 41.7% 2.40 +7.8%

Away O1.5 34.0% 36.4% 2.75 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City1.4

Swansea1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.45

SWANSEA · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +7.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.5%

Swansea (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Swansea in England - Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Swansea 28%, so Stoke City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stoke City and 1.1 for Swansea (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.23 for Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Stoke City vs Swansea Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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