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Blackburn vs Leicester City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Blackburn

PPG 0.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leicester City

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.5%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.1%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 45.9% 2.18 -21.1%

Draw 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

Away win 32.2% 32.8% 3.05 -1.8%

Over 2.5 42.9% 55.6% 1.80 -22.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 33.3% 3.00 -34.0%

BTTS 50.6% 60.6% 1.65 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.6%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–1✓ 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackburn1.2

Leicester City1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKBURN · PPG 0.95

LEICESTER CITY · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.95), Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Blackburn (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -21.1%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +12.2%

Leicester City (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackburn face Leicester City in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackburn a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Leicester City 32%, so Blackburn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Blackburn and 1.2 for Leicester City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackburn are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.95 for Leicester City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Blackburn vs Leicester City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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