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Portsmouth vs QPR Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Portsmouth

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

QPR

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.3%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.3%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 44.2% 2.26 +4.6%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 28.2% 32.8% 3.05 -8.4%

Over 2.5 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Over 3.5 31.3% 29.4% 3.40 +6.4%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 45.1% 45.5% 2.20 -0.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 37.0% 2.70 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.5

QPR1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.37

QPR · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +4.6%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

QPR (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face QPR in England - Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 46% chance, the draw 26% and QPR 28%, so Portsmouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portsmouth and 1.1 for QPR (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.23 for QPR. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Portsmouth vs QPR Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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