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Norwich vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Norwich

PPG 1.37 · HOME

UPCOMING

West Brom

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.5%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Draw 26.8% 28.6% 3.50 -3.7%

Away win 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Away O1.5 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norwich1.5

West Brom1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NORWICH · PPG 1.37

WEST BROM · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Norwich (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.7%

West Brom (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich face West Brom in England - Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich a 48% chance, the draw 27% and West Brom 26%, so Norwich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Norwich and 1.0 for West Brom (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.06 for West Brom. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.0%.

Norwich vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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