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Narva U21 vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Narva U21

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tallinna Kalev II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.50 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.9%1-13.4%1-22.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.3%2-16.2%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-17.6%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-118.2%4+-210.6%4+-34.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 16.2% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 66% / xG 3.7-1.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 4–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva U213.7

Tallinna Kalev II1.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA U21 · PPG 2.60

TALLINNA KALEV II · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.50 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Narva U21 (H) 66.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tallinna Kalev II (A) 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva U21 face Tallinna Kalev II in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva U21 a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Tallinna Kalev II 16%, so Narva U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Narva U21 and 1.2 for Tallinna Kalev II (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva U21 are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.70 for Tallinna Kalev II.

Narva U21 vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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