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Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Tartu Kalev

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

JK Tabasalu

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.38 for Home, form 1.78 vs 1.09 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.0%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.5%1-22.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-014.1%4+-117.6%4+-210.9%4+-34.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 15.4% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 68% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 3–0 6.1%

#5 4–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Kalev3.6

JK Tabasalu1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU KALEV · PPG 1.78

JK TABASALU · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.38 for Home, form 1.78 vs 1.09 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Kalev (H) 68.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

JK Tabasalu (A) 15.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Kalev face JK Tabasalu in Estonia - Esiliiga B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Kalev a 68% chance, the draw 17% and JK Tabasalu 15%, so Tartu Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Tartu Kalev and 1.2 for JK Tabasalu (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Kalev are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.09 for JK Tabasalu.

Tartu Kalev vs JK Tabasalu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga B

Match Preview & Prediction

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