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Zhetysu vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Zhetysu

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ordabasy

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.7%0-29.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-16.0%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 17.2% 5.80 +43.4%

Draw 27.3% 27.0% 3.70 +0.6%

Away win 43.0% 65.4% 1.53 -34.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

BTTS 53.1% 51.8% 1.93 +2.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 23.1% 4.33 +39.0%

Away O1.5 46.9% 58.8% 1.70 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhetysu1.0

Ordabasy1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHETYSU · PPG 1.00

ORDABASY · PPG 1.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Zhetysu (H) 29.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +43.4%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.6%

Ordabasy (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhetysu face Ordabasy in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhetysu a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Ordabasy 43%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Zhetysu and 1.5 for Ordabasy (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhetysu are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Ordabasy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +52.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Zhetysu vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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