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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kaisar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-18.5%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-112.0%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.4%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

Away win 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Over 3.5 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

BTTS 48.4% 56.5% 1.77 -14.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 52.6% 1.90 -13.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.8% 3.25 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Tobol Kostanay1.4

Kaisar0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 2.22

KAISAR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Tobol Kostanay (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.1%

Kaisar (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay face Kaisar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Kaisar 21%, so FK Tobol Kostanay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.7 for Kaisar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Tobol Kostanay are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Kaisar.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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