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Altay vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Altay

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.3%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 27.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 52.8% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 27.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altay1.2

Kyzyl-Zhar0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTAY · PPG 0.80

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Altay (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kyzyl-Zhar (A) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Altay face Kyzyl-Zhar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altay a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Kyzyl-Zhar 27%, so Altay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Altay and 0.9 for Kyzyl-Zhar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altay are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.89 for Kyzyl-Zhar. This match finished 2-2.

Altay vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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