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Kairat Almaty vs Zhenys Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zhenys

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.9%1-16.6%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-16.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.3%4+-16.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.8% 78.7% 1.27 -7.5%

Draw 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -8.4%

Away win 9.1% 11.2% 8.90 -11.4%

Over 2.5 56.3% 60.6% 1.65 -7.1%

Over 3.5 34.0% 39.1% 2.56 -13.0%

BTTS 46.1% 50.5% 1.98 -8.7%

Home O1.5 62.4% 70.4% 1.42 -11.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 18.2% 5.50 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.1%

H 73% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.4%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 3–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kairat Almaty2.4

Zhenys0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.33

ZHENYS · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kairat Almaty (H) 72.8%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -7.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -8.4%

Zhenys (A) 9.1%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kairat Almaty face Zhenys in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kairat Almaty a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Zhenys 9%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kairat Almaty and 0.5 for Zhenys (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kairat Almaty are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.90 for Zhenys. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.4%.

Kairat Almaty vs Zhenys Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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