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Respublika FA vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 13:00

Respublika FA

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Aral

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.48 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-112.0%0-213.2%0-39.6%0-4+8.8%1 1-03.9%1-18.5%1-29.4%1-36.8%1-4+6.3%2 2-01.4%2-13.0%2-23.3%2-32.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 67.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 59.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob53.1%

A 67% / xG 0.7-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.2%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 0–3 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Respublika FA0.7

Aral2.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RESPUBLIKA FA · PPG 1.17

ARAL · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.48 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Respublika FA (H) 13.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aral (A) 67.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Respublika FA face Aral in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Respublika FA a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Aral 67%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Respublika FA and 2.2 for Aral (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Respublika FA are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.33 for Aral. This match finished 0-0.

Respublika FA vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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