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Aral vs BuxDu Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Aral

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

BuxDu

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.11 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-12.9%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.0%2-15.1%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-16.0%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.8%4+-113.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.2% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 7.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.9% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 77% / xG 3.5-0.4 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 14.1%

#2 4–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 5–0 8.8%

#5 1–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aral3.5

BuxDu0.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAL · PPG 3.00

BUXDU · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.11 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Aral (H) 77.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

BuxDu (A) 7.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aral face BuxDu in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aral a 77% chance, the draw 15% and BuxDu 8%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Aral and 0.4 for BuxDu (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aral are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for BuxDu.

Aral vs BuxDu Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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