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OLS vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

OLS

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rops

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.1%0-23.9%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.1%1-19.5%1-27.3%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.6%3-15.5%3-24.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 29.9% 35.7% 2.80 -9.8%

Over 2.5 64.7% 71.4% 1.40 -9.4%

Over 3.5 42.8% 52.4% 1.91 -18.3%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Away O1.5 47.3% 52.4% 1.91 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS1.9

Rops1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS · PPG 2.11

ROPS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

OLS (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Rops (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS face Rops in Finland - Ykkonen on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Rops 30%, so OLS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for OLS and 1.6 for Rops (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.67 for Rops.

OLS vs Rops Prediction— Finland - Ykkonen

Match Preview & Prediction

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