Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Caersws vs Gresford Athletic

Caersws vs Gresford Athletic Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Caersws

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gresford Athletic

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.3%1-16.2%1-23.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-18.7%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-111.1%4+-26.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Draw 16.3% 22.7% 4.40 -17.0%

Away win 18.3% 16.7% 6.00 +5.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 47.2% 55.9% 1.79 -15.5%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 65.6% 73.5% 1.36 -10.8%

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.2% 2.84 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.9%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caersws2.8

Gresford Athletic1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERSWS · PPG 1.56

GRESFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 1.56 vs 0.87 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Caersws (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -11.1%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -17.0%

Gresford Athletic (A) 18.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caersws face Gresford Athletic in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caersws a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Gresford Athletic 18%, so Caersws are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Caersws and 1.2 for Gresford Athletic (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caersws are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.87 for Gresford Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Caersws vs Gresford Athletic Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions