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Macara vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:10

Macara

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Barcelona SC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-041.6%0-116.0%0-23.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.5%1-17.9%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.1%2-11.9%2-20.4%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.8%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 41.7% 2.40 -30.6%

Draw 49.8% 31.7% 3.15 +56.9%

Away win 21.3% 33.9% 2.95 -37.2%

Over 2.5 5.9% 44.4% 2.25 -86.7%

Over 3.5 1.2% 23.8% 4.20 -95.0%

BTTS 12.4% 52.6% 1.90 -76.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob12.4%

D 50% / xG 0.5-0.4 / U2.5 6% / NoBTTS 12%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 41.6%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara0.5

Barcelona SC0.4

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 5.9% · O3.5 PROB 1.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.25

BARCELONA SC · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -30.6%

Draw 49.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +56.9%

Barcelona SC (A) 21.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 29% chance, the draw 50% and Barcelona SC 21%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Macara and 0.4 for Barcelona SC (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 6% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 12% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Barcelona SC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +56.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Macara vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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