Today / Venezuela - Primera División / UCV vs D. Tachira

UCV vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

UCV

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Tachira

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.7%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.3%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 29.0% 3.45 +67.3%

Draw 24.1% 33.9% 2.95 -28.9%

Away win 27.5% 47.6% 2.10 -42.3%

Over 2.5 55.2% 46.5% 2.15 +18.7%

Over 3.5 32.8% 26.3% 3.80 +24.6%

BTTS 57.1% 55.6% 1.80 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.1%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV1.7

D. Tachira1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 2.00

D. TACHIRA · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 48.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +67.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -28.9%

D. Tachira (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -42.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face D. Tachira in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 49% chance, the draw 24% and D. Tachira 28%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for UCV and 1.2 for D. Tachira (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for D. Tachira. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +67.3%. This match finished 1-1.

UCV vs D. Tachira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions