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Gareji Sagarejo vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 2.71 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Samtredia

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-16.4%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-110.0%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.0%3-14.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 19.7% — — —

Over 2.5 43.2% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 9.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gareji Sagarejo1.6

Samtredia0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 2.71

SAMTREDIA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Gareji Sagarejo (H) 55.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Samtredia (A) 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gareji Sagarejo face Samtredia in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gareji Sagarejo a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Samtredia 20%, so Gareji Sagarejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gareji Sagarejo and 0.5 for Samtredia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gareji Sagarejo are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.57 for Samtredia. This match finished 3-2.

Gareji Sagarejo vs Samtredia Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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