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Spokane Z. W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:00

Spokane Z. W

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sporting JAX W

PPG 2.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-113.4%0-212.0%0-37.2%0-4+4.8%1 1-06.0%1-110.7%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.4%2-14.3%2-23.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.1%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.3% 25.0% 4.00 -34.8%

Draw 22.7% 26.7% 3.75 -14.9%

Away win 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Over 2.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

Over 3.5 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.4%

BTTS 45.8% 54.6% 1.83 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 52.9%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob45.8%

A 61% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.4%

#2 0–2 12.0%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spokane Z. W0.8

Sporting JAX W1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPOKANE Z. W · PPG 1.11

SPORTING JAX W · PPG 2.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.55) vs Home AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Spokane Z. W (H) 16.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -34.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.9%

Sporting JAX W (A) 61.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spokane Z. W face Sporting JAX W in USA - USL Super League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spokane Z. W a 16% chance, the draw 23% and Sporting JAX W 61%, so Sporting JAX W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Spokane Z. W and 1.8 for Sporting JAX W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spokane Z. W are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 2.55 for Sporting JAX W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Spokane Z. W vs Sporting JAX W Prediction— USA - USL Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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