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Sogndal II vs Fana Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Sogndal II

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fana

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.3%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.0%1-14.0%1-24.0%1-32.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-16.1%3-26.1%3-34.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-19.5%4+-29.5%4+-36.4%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 19.5% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 75.7% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

H 53% / xG 3.0-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.1%

#3 2–1 6.1%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal II3.0

Fana2.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL II · PPG 1.17

FANA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal II (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fana (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal II face Fana in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal II a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Fana 28%, so Sogndal II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Sogndal II and 2.0 for Fana (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal II are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.86 for Fana.

Sogndal II vs Fana Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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