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Vard vs Djerv Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Vard

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Djerv

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.7%0-23.0%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.8%1-17.9%1-26.5%1-33.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.7%3-16.1%3-25.0%3-32.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.4%4+-24.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 46.5% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.7% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vard2.1

Djerv1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VARD · PPG 2.29

DJERV · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vard (H) 49.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Djerv (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vard face Djerv in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vard a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Djerv 29%, so Vard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vard and 1.6 for Djerv (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vard are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.29 for Djerv. This match finished 1-3.

Vard vs Djerv Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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