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Austevoll vs Vard Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:15

Austevoll

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vard

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.6%0-23.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.7%1-17.3%1-27.3%1-34.8%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.5%3-15.0%3-24.9%3-33.2%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.0%4+-23.9%4+-32.6%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 46.1% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.3%

H 42% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Austevoll2.0

Vard2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AUSTEVOLL · PPG 1.14

VARD · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Austevoll (H) 42.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vard (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Austevoll face Vard in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Austevoll a 42% chance, the draw 22% and Vard 36%, so Austevoll are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Austevoll and 2.0 for Vard (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Austevoll are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Vard.

Austevoll vs Vard Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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