Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 / Gneist vs Førde

Gneist vs Førde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:00

Gneist

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Førde

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.1%0-22.5%0-31.9%0-4+2.0%1 1-02.1%1-15.0%1-25.9%1-34.6%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-26.9%2-35.4%2-4+5.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.6%3-25.5%3-34.3%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.8%4+-25.6%4+-34.4%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 38.8% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.4%

H 41% / xG 2.4-2.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1 5.9%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gneist2.4

Førde2.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GNEIST · PPG 1.12

FØRDE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gneist (H) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Førde (A) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gneist face Førde in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gneist a 41% chance, the draw 21% and Førde 39%, so Gneist are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Gneist and 2.4 for Førde (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gneist are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Førde.

Gneist vs Førde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 Predictions