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Varegg vs Askøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Varegg

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Askøy

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.3%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 43.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 45.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varegg1.1

Askøy1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VAREGG · PPG 1.14

ASKØY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Varegg (H) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Askøy (A) 43.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varegg face Askøy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varegg a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Askøy 43%, so Askøy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Varegg and 1.5 for Askøy (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varegg are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.00 for Askøy.

Varegg vs Askøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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