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Fana vs Gneist Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Fana

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gneist

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.4%1-12.5%1-22.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-02.7%2-14.8%2-24.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-16.1%3-25.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-115.9%4+-214.1%4+-38.4%4+-4+5.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% — — —

Draw 15.9% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 80.9% — — —

Over 3.5 63.5% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 64% / xG 3.8-1.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.1%

#2 4–1 5.9%

#3 3–2 5.4%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fana3.8

Gneist1.8

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FANA · PPG 1.86

GNEIST · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fana (H) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gneist (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fana face Gneist in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fana a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Gneist 20%, so Fana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Fana and 1.8 for Gneist (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fana are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Gneist. This match finished 4-0.

Fana vs Gneist Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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