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FC Gomel vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:10

FC Gomel

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naftan

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.2%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-17.8%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-17.6%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-18.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 74.1% 1.35 -17.8%

Draw 19.0% 23.8% 4.20 -12.1%

Away win 20.1% 12.5% 8.00 +36.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.0% 1.64 +3.5%

Over 3.5 38.8% 40.8% 2.45 -4.9%

BTTS 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 69.4% 1.44 -9.3%

Away O1.5 21.1% 19.2% 5.20 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -60.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Gomel2.4

Naftan0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GOMEL · PPG 1.56

NAFTAN · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.56 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Gomel (H) 60.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -17.8%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.1%

Naftan (A) 20.1%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Gomel face Naftan in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Gomel a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Naftan 20%, so FC Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Gomel and 0.8 for Naftan (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Gomel are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.14 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +36.3%.

FC Gomel vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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