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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

FC Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Belshina

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.4%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-111.2%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 60.6% 1.65 -10.6%

Draw 23.3% 25.6% 3.90 -5.5%

Away win 22.6% 20.8% 4.80 +5.1%

Over 2.5 55.5% 55.9% 1.79 -0.7%

Over 3.5 33.8% 35.7% 2.80 -5.4%

BTTS 54.5% 56.8% 1.76 -4.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 57.5% 1.74 -14.4%

Away O1.5 26.8% 28.7% 3.48 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -60.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Dnepr Mogilev1.7

Belshina1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.88

BELSHINA · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Dnepr Mogilev (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -10.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.5%

Belshina (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Dnepr Mogilev face Belshina in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Dnepr Mogilev a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Belshina 23%, so FC Dnepr Mogilev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.0 for Belshina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.00 for Belshina.

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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